#StopMES – Disinfo Analysis
Context:
We were approached by colleagues from SOMA, the European Disinformation Observatory, with a request for assistance after they identified some suspicious activity in Italy relating to the #StopMES narrative.
Scope:
We used a number of specialist tools to access Twitter API records and ascertain what level of activity was occurring around the use of this hashtag and the accounts pushing the narrative.
Available data:
10 days to 11th December 2019
Data Summary:
We have identified 46,100 tweets in total of which 84% (38,600) were retweets which is highly indicative of inorganic behaviour and topic interference. Only 1,700 (4%) were replies.
The maximum number of tweets per minute during this period was 78, which is indicative of human-managed as opposed to automated behaviour.
According the gender data recorded by Twitter, 35% of the tweets came from females and 65% from males.
ANALYSIS
Tweets on the topic peaked on December 2 though there are signs of consistency with conversation timing across the ten day period, escalating in the afternoon before dropping off again overnight. This largely confirms the topic is being driven by humans due to the expected rest period between midnight and 0600.
Relative sentiment – a simple measure of emotion around the hashtag – shows it remains close to zero or in negative numbers, meaning it is an adverse emotional topic.
Considering the nature of the conversation, the geography is interesting.
As you would expect there is a high concentration of activity in Italy, however hotspots exist not only in Europe but Africa, the US, and Russia. This is a further indicator of inauthentic behaviour given the issue is highly localised.
98% of the tweets, however, were in Italian and 88% of the tweets originated in Italy.
Within Italy, the bulk of the conversation originated in Rome (44%) and Milan (26%) with a small distribution across other major cities.
A number of additional hashtags have been in use alongside #StopMES, which is known as co-concurrence. Aside from #mes which you would expect, #salvini is the second most used co-concurrent tag.
Others include #italexit, #nonfirmiamouncazzo, and even #m5s and a red circle emoji was used in 9.8% of the tweets.
Within the text of the tweets, the most used word is “conte” which also ties in with the third and fourth most used hashtags #contevergogna (conte shame) and #conte.
Most of the content was posted from Android devices (48.1%) and via the web (22.1%) or iPhone (20.1%) however it is worth noting that 1.4% of the overall tweets came from native apps called LegaPerSalviniPremier and Noi con Salvini.
URLs:
A number of unique URLs were found in a number of the tweets, distributed across 8 websites.
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nxzWgsWbXs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ols5fnvHjw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ij255wQqhc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxmFI05cNbM
Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/salviniofficial/videos/2585655984815700/
https://www.facebook.com/salviniofficial/videos/1163433587191458/
https://www.facebook.com/giorgiameloni.paginaufficiale/videos/1143868145817393/
https://www.facebook.com/salviniofficial/videos/2645870838785039/
PSCP.tv:
https://www.pscp.tv/w/cLUSszE3OTc4NjV8MVlwS2tZTFZtZG9KaksMeLuSygY9jLnPw0Cq5QfdLvpXFPWLWFveiryB8nF0
https://www.pscp.tv/w/cL4tJzE3OTc4NjV8MU1ZeE5QZFFyd1BHd9D1AuBSsoQKNoZ21ieLvs5HqZTEpyN5TISiF3Ycg8Q1
https://www.pscp.tv/w/cMDPEDE3OTc4NjV8MXlvS016RU9OYVdHUZfgBj0Efdq7hX5GFwarEwzTXFQGPo2IBZRuN_T1p-CR
Lantidiplomatico.it:
ilsussidiario.net:
ilsole24ore.com:
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mes-maio-chiede-rinvio-l-italia-non-puo-firmare-buio-ACzasU2
video.twimg.com:
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1200197970454556672/pu/vid/1280x720/BV8fOSnMPZXJLmgn.mp4?tag=10
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1201407629051998209/pu/vid/1024x576/c9ZW4QVBVvgZZ14E.mp4?tag=10
orrizonte48.blogspot.com:
http://orizzonte48.blogspot.com/2019/12/superata-la-legalita-costituzionalecome.html
http://orizzonte48.blogspot.com/2019/11/il-mes-2-e-i-suoi-fratelli-il.html?m=1
lavocedlepatriota.it:
https://www.lavocedelpatriota.it/basta-fregature-stopmes-fdi-manifesta-a-bruxelles/
fanpage.it:
Tweets:
The most influential tweets of the #StopMES collection during the ten day period were:
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1203400786077790214 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1202346471896571904 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201769822436122624 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201781155072237570 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201998269716537344 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201998718637105152 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1204740199026171904 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1204756997314359297 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201529333149585410 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201531997354627072 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201537882424524801 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201538523016368130 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201540683762409473 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201541614289768449 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201542826787516417 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201543368209240064 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201543585738264576 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201544743941001222 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201575534582489088 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1203774485901561856 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201798558166536192 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204095219781816320 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201503765519425541 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201534325721903109 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201552075500466176 |
| https://twitter.com/Libero_official/status/1204380428129439744 |
| https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/status/1201182494697172992 |
| https://twitter.com/DSantanche/status/1204016354774388736 |
| https://twitter.com/DSantanche/status/1204033371690717191 |
| https://twitter.com/DSantanche/status/1201551354378031104 |
| https://twitter.com/hermanntertsch/status/1204092149601636353 |
| https://twitter.com/_MicroMega_/status/1202302062920380416 |
The most retweeted posts of the collection were:
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201503765519425541 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201978207177715714 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201543368209240064 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201552075500466176 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204006073184571392 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201963538836791297 |
| https://twitter.com/mattia_lz/status/1202208685268840448 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1202993337290121218 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204729677752877058 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1203655797214986241 |
| https://twitter.com/AntonioGrzt/status/1201612869948841984 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201798558166536192 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204057360291041280 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1202278809027911692 |
| https://twitter.com/RadioSavana/status/1202656527921942528 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201770138577653760 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201535258065289217 |
| https://twitter.com/FratellidItaIia/status/1201463370089672704 |
| https://twitter.com/FratellidItaIia/status/1201496978204635138 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1202907937200627719 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201534325721903109 |
| https://twitter.com/AMorelliMilano/status/1203374654095802374 |
| https://twitter.com/molumbe/status/1202257685195964418 |
| https://twitter.com/FratellidItaIia/status/1204069265118310400 |
| https://twitter.com/rubino7004/status/1201410946842804225 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201538523016368130 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1203041314750844929 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201544989949476865 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201529333149585410 |
| https://twitter.com/benq_antonio/status/1201793121648041985 |
| https://twitter.com/molumbe/status/1203703748645838854 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201542228197412865 |
The most quoted tweets of the collection were:
| https://twitter.com/maryfagi/status/1203680718251024385 |
| https://twitter.com/molumbe/status/1203703748645838854 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201978207177715714 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1201509522201858048 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1204070306513588224 |
| https://twitter.com/FratellidItaIia/status/1201496978204635138 |
| https://twitter.com/IoFausto/status/1201160326709960704 |
| https://twitter.com/marco_gervasoni/status/1201023806044884992 |
| https://twitter.com/VittorioBanti/status/1203411246705451008 |
| https://twitter.com/gilardisil/status/1201565846159724545 |
| https://twitter.com/littleboypc/status/1201139299485396992 |
| https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1201181044457775105 |
| https://twitter.com/giuslit/status/1201178359763472389 |
| https://twitter.com/miia_2018/status/1204143070956183552 |
| https://twitter.com/danielescarfati/status/1201491613173866497 |
| https://twitter.com/gilardisil/status/1202490258740436992 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204006073184571392 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1204446869860093952 |
| https://twitter.com/RadioSavana/status/1200050305188188160 |
| https://twitter.com/FratellidItaIia/status/1204060379531358208 |
| https://twitter.com/moschettopres/status/1201515451681005568 |
| https://twitter.com/PatriziaRametta/status/1201507663483420672 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1204093941106302976 |
| https://twitter.com/SebCochard_11/status/1202926750432419840 |
| https://twitter.com/RogerHalsted/status/1202219761712685057 |
| https://twitter.com/BuompaneG/status/1203648348558897152 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201552075500466176 |
| https://twitter.com/MauroSutto/status/1201514051014135808 |
| https://twitter.com/VittorioBanti/status/1201805773027852290 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204729677752877058 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1201566093023875080 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1202264679772545024 |
The tweets most replied to across the collection were:
| https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1201181044457775105 |
| https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1201473215224274945 |
| https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1201201490062434308 |
| https://twitter.com/GiuseppeConteIT/status/1204405437698674691 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201543368209240064 |
| https://twitter.com/Mov5Stelle/status/1203310100460515328 |
| https://twitter.com/CarloCalenda/status/1203735326851846149 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1203041314750844929 |
| https://twitter.com/davidefaraone/status/1201779635689836545 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1202346470281764864 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201503765519425541 |
| https://twitter.com/Corriere/status/1202473871913472000 |
| https://twitter.com/PastorellaGiu/status/1203718573589446657 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1204712586828271617 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201802016563040256 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1202174417968738304 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1202243760664522752 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1202264679772545024 |
| https://twitter.com/CottarelliCPI/status/1202271348359233536 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1202278809027911692 |
| https://twitter.com/Rinaldi_euro/status/1201876432600928257 |
| https://twitter.com/ManlioDS/status/1202608277315555328 |
| https://twitter.com/borghi_claudio/status/1203635788514316289 |
| https://twitter.com/AlbertoBagnai/status/1203669523481673728 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1203801066984394753 |
| https://twitter.com/nzingaretti/status/1201519622505336832 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201769822436122624 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201781150475325440 |
| https://twitter.com/matteosalvinimi/status/1201781155072237570 |
| https://twitter.com/GiorgiaMeloni/status/1201798558166536192 |
| https://twitter.com/La7tv/status/1201814825061486592 |
| https://twitter.com/graziano_delrio/status/1201563048642826241 |
Influence and Distributors:
The most influential figures discussing the #StopMES topic are Matteo Salvini and Georgie Meloni, supported by the official Fratelli d’Italia and Lega accounts.
The distribution of tweets on the topic, however, is notably across a broader range of accounts with varying follower counts:
The majority of the tweets are, in fact, coming from accounts with much smaller audiences:
Of these 32 accounts discussing the topic the most, we dip sampled the six which have each produced over 3,000 tweets on the #StopMES topic during the 10 day period.
All of them passed standard testing, indicating they are human-managed accounts not using automation.
Conclusion:
There are signs that #StopMES is an artificially inflated or inauthentic topic as set out above and it would appear to be the case that the inauthenticity is human-led which indicates this a deliberate and carefully crafted narrative campaign centred around Salvini and Meloni using the networks of Lega and Fratelli to enhance audience visibility.
There are some good indicators that actors not native to Italy are involved in this effort.
Ends.
