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An Election Without Brexit

Field Work: 6th October to 8th October.

Method: Representative, Sample Size: 1,532

Genders: All

Age Range: All

Region: Whole UK

 

Summary:

This poll - conditional upon Brexit not taking place at the end of this month - shows that the Conservatives are maintaining their lead over the other parties. It also tends to show that the Liberal Democrats and Labour are going to be fighting the next election in almost direct competition, while the Conservatives will continue to be at risk of percentage loss to the Brexit Party.

CORE RESULT

None Of The Above Removed_ Gender
None Of The Above Removed_ Which party might you support in the next general election_
If Brexit does not take place on October 31st, which party might you support in the next general election_

CONSERVATIVES

Support is strongest in the South West.

Male support is above the general norm of the sample.

Female support is below the general norm of the sample.

Support is strongest in the 55-65+ age range.

Conservatives_ Gender
Conservatives_ Age
Conservatives_ Geography

LABOUR

Support is strongest in London.

Male support is below the general norm of the sample.

Female support is above the general norm of the sample.

Support is strongest in the 35-54 age range.

Labour_ Gender
Labour_ Age
Labour_ Geography

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

Support is strongest in London.

Male support is in line with the general norm of the sample.

Female support is in line with the general norm of the sample.

Support is strongest in the 35-54 age range.

Liberal Democrat_ Gender
Liberal Democrat_ Age
Liberal Democrat_ Geography

BREXIT PARTY

Support is strongest in the East of England.

Male support is in line with norm of the sample.

Female support is above the general norm of the sample.

Support is strongest in the 55-65+ age range.

Brexit Party_ Gender
Brexit Party_ Age
Brexit Party_ Geography

SNP

Male support is in line with the general norm of the sample.

Female support is above the general norm of the sample.

Support is strongest in the 45-64 age range.

SNP_ Gender
SNP_ Age
SNP_ Geography

NONE OF THE ABOVE

No preference for any of the main parties is strongest in London.

Male absence of preference for any of the main parties is below the general norm of the sample.

Female absence of preference for any of the main parties is above the general norm of the sample.

Absence of preference for any of the main parties is strongest in the 25-44 age range.

None Of The Above_ Gender
None Of The Above_ Age
None Of The Above_ Geography

ELECTION FORECAST

Under these circumstances a general election would be complex, with a number of factors interacting . Brexit would still, however, be a deciding factor.

Using a basic result forecaster within our Gladiator modelling scheme, we have calculated a potential election result based on the polling with the "None Of The Above" voters excluded.

This produces a Conservative majority, with the SNP, Liberal Democrats, and Labour all having an adverse impact on each other across at a constituency level.

N.B. The forecast model has coincidentally picked up on constituencies where the Green Party and Plaid Cymru would both make gains in these circumstances. The "Other" constituency is currently held by the Speaker, John Bercow.

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